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With the Fed meeting out of the way, investors are turning their attention to the ECB rate decision today.
The primary thing investors are looking is the roadmap to ECB’s QE (quantitative easing) policy. Right now, the ECB is pursuing an accommodative monetary policy by buying Eurozone government bonds every month. With the US Fed already reversed its QE policy, investors are expecting the ECB – sooner or later – to follow suit.
It was this anticipation that led the Euro to rally from 1.05-1.25 last year. However, Italy’s political crisis and US monetary tightening in April caused the Euro to slump from 1.25 to 1.15. So, the question is now is whether Euro will be able to regain its upward momentum from 1.16.
Technically, the rate is developing a mini base formation, with the floor established at 1.16-1.17. The gentle rise this month indicates some short-covering but the majority of the bears are staying put. Therefore, unless the ECB gives a clear guidance today, the rate may range sideways in between 1.16-1.18 for the time being.
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Jackson has over 10 years experience as a financial analyst. Previously a director of Stockcube Research as head of Investors Intelligence providing market timing advice and research to some of the world largest institutions and hedge funds.
Expertise: Global macroeconomic investment strategy, statistical backtesting, asset allocation, and cross-asset research.
Jackson has a PhD in Finance from Durham University.